Alaves vs Villarreal prediction, tips & stats

Alaves will host Villarreal on Friday in a La Liga clash that looks pivotal for both ends of the table as the season heads into its final stretch.

The guests seem to be on their way to a Top 4 finish, which would secure them a spot in the Champions League, while Alaves are struggling to keep their distance from the relegation zone.

Read our Alaves vs Villarreal prediction and preview to learn more about this match and get some useful betting tips.

Tip 1: Villarreal to win & BTTS - Yes

Villarreal’s underlying away profile points to matches that can be open at both ends since they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per away game. Meanwhile, Villarreal are the favourites for a reason as they are the better team and in much better form.

The recent H2H also supports goals at both ends when Villarreal win since the latest meeting finished Villarreal 3-1 Alaves, and Villarreal have a few multi-goal H2H wins in the last 10 meetings (e.g., 3-0, 5-2, 3-1). Lastly, both teams have scored in eight of the last ten meetings between these teams.

Tip 2: Alaves under 1.5 total goals

Alaves’ attacking numbers are modest overall, especially away, but even at home they average just 1.2 goals scored per game, which supports an “under 1.5 team goals” line as a value bet. Overll, they have only scored 25 goals in 27 La Liga matches.

H2H results reinforce this as well - in the last 10 meetings shown, Alaves scored 0 or 1 goal in seven matches, so keeping them to a maximum of one goal has been common in this matchup.

Tip 3: Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal) to be booked

Buchanan has 7 yellow cards this season (and 16 fouls committed), placing him among Villarreal’s higher discipline-risk players

This is a more odds-friendly angle than the broad card markets and it’s supported by the fact both teams commit plenty of fouls overall: Alaves have 397 fouls committed and Villarreal have 327, which can raise the probability of individual bookings in contested phases.