Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse prediction, tips & stats

Paris Saint Germain will host Toulouse on Friday in a Ligue 1 clash that could shape the top end of the table as the season heads into the run-in.

The defending champions are looking for three points that would secure they stay at the top of the table after the weekend, while Toulouse are hoping to spoil their plans.

Read on for our Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse prediction and preview for more information about this game.

Tip 1: Draw/Paris Saint Germain

PSG’s home defensive output this season is elite since they concede just 0.6 goals per home game across 12 home fixtures, which supports the idea of a controlled match where Toulouse aren’t necessarily blown away immediately.

At the same time, the overall H2H picture strongly favours PSG and across the last 10 meetings, PSG have 8 wins, with only 1 draw and 1 Toulouse win. That combination (PSG dominance + strong PSG home GA) makes this an interesting bet, especially since Toulouse are having a good season and PSG have Champions League quarter-finals just a few days after this game.

Tip 2: Toulouse under 0.5 total goals

As we mentioned before, PSG’s home goals-against rate in Ligue 1 is just 0.6 per game, suggesting opponents frequently fail to score at all when they come to Parc des Princes.

It also aligns with the H2H summary since PSG have recorded 6 clean sheets across the last 10 meetings with Toulouse.

Tip 3: Achraf Hakimi to be carded

Hakimi has 3 yellow cards and 1 red card this season, making him one of PSG’s clearest card candidates.

While Toulouse are the team that has more fouls committed (375 compared to 258 for PSG), we can see this leading to a rougher game and a card for PSG's worst-disciplined player.